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Al-Qadisiyah FC cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Al Okhdood.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al Okhdood 2-0 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.54 xG and Al Okhdood 1.12 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Al Okhdood landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.92 / defence 0.86 against Al Okhdood attack 0.95 / defence 1.12, drawn from 20/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 47% | Draw 25% | Al Okhdood 28%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%, Al Okhdood 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (20 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 55% of the time, and duly kept one.

Al Okhdood's trading profile (20 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 0.80. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights