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Al-Qadisiyah FC cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al-Nassr.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al-Nassr 3-1 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.36 xG and Al-Nassr 1.75 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al-Qadisiyah FC beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.34 / defence 0.82 against Al-Nassr attack 1.49 / defence 0.68, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 30% | Draw 24% | Al-Nassr 47%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 47%. The actual Al-Qadisiyah FC win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 58%, Al-Nassr 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Nassr's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.08 PPG, Al-Nassr 2.28 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Qadisiyah FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.03 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.62 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights