Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Kholood – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Qadisiyah FC (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Qadisiyah FC face Al Kholood.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Kholood meet at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Thursday 8 April 2027 at 18:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al-Qadisiyah FC's overall Pro League record this term: 8W 1D 1L from 10 games (2.50 PPG). Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.40 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have posted 6W 3D 1L at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium — 2.10 PPG. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Kholood (all games): 3W 4D 3L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 1.30 points per game. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Kholood's away record: 1W 4D 5L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Form favours the hosts. Al-Qadisiyah FC's 2.50 PPG return is 1.20 points per game ahead of Al Kholood's 1.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Al-Qadisiyah FC have seen both teams score in 80% of their games, Al Kholood in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
Historically, Al-Qadisiyah FC have had the better of this match-up — 5 wins from 5 meetings, with Al Kholood managing just 0 victories and 0 draws shared.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.4 goals per game across 5 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 9 Oct 2026, ended 5–0 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Qadisiyah FC and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 5 meetings, combined with an average of 4.4 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading
Al-Qadisiyah FC half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 54%.
Al Kholood half-time and goal-timing data (43 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 37%; they fail to score in 40% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 63% versus Al Kholood 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al-Qadisiyah FC 67% | Al Kholood 65%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.28 xG and Al Kholood 1.33 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.296 / defence 1.016 | Al Kholood attack 0.913 / defence 1.262. League average goals — home 1.396 / away 1.432. Al-Qadisiyah FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.296 — their λ of 2.28 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al Kholood bring a strong defensive rating of 1.262 — this is suppressing Al-Qadisiyah FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 44 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 43 Al Kholood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 57% | Draw 23% | Al Kholood 20%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.75 | Draw 4.35 | Al Kholood 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (57%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 70% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.61. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 70% — a total xG of 3.61 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (2.28 / 1.33) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.61 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 70% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 68% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Qadisiyah FC 80% | Al Kholood 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Kholood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 8 Apr 2027, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 57% | Draw 23% | Al Kholood 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 70% | BTTS 68% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.28 / Al Kholood 1.33 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.296 / def 1.016 | Al Kholood attack 0.913 / def 1.262 | league avg home 1.396 / away 1.432 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.28
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.33
Al Kholood xG
68%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
70%
Over 2.5
49%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Kholood kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Kholood is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 on Thursday 8 April 2027 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Kholood being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Kholood part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Kholood is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Kholood?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 57% chance of winning, Al Kholood a 20% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Kholood?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Kholood will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Kholood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 70%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Kholood?
Record (5 meetings): Al-Qadisiyah FC 5W | Draws 0 | Al Kholood 0W.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Kholood in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Al Kholood (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack at 1.30x the league average against Al Kholood's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 2.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Kholood's attack (0.91x) against Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence (1.02x) — and the away total comes out at 1.33.
These ratings are built from 44/43 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (9.2%), 3-1 (7.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 26% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
57%
1.75
23%
4.32
20%
5.07
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.2%
Draw
3 – 1
7.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.28
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
3.61
1.33
Al Kholood xG
1.75
57%
Home win
4.32
23%
Draw
5.07
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
88%
Over 1.5
1.14
12%
Under 1.5
8.33
70%
Over 2.5
1.43
30%
Under 2.5
3.33
49%
Over 3.5
2.04
51%
Under 3.5
1.96
30%
Over 4.5
3.33
70%
Under 4.5
1.43
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.47
32%
BTTS No
3.11
Clean Sheet
26%
3.78
10%
9.82
Win to Nil
15%
6.62
2%
49.75
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.7 | 3.6 | 2.4 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 6.2 | 8.2 | 5.4 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 9.3 | 6.2 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.4 | 7.1 | 4.7 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 3.1 | 4.1 | 2.7 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.4 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Kholood?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.3%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Kholood expected to score?
The model projects 2.28 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1.33 for Al Kholood, a combined total of 3.61.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Kholood?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al-Qadisiyah FC come into this having played 43 games, going 30W 9D 4L for 2.30 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W. The sample for Al-Qadisiyah FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Kholood sit at 1.05 PPG from 43 outings (12W 9D 22L), a run that reads D-W-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Al Kholood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al-Qadisiyah FC carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.25 PPG clear of Al Kholood — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home form reads 13W 7D 1L across 21 games on their own ground, a 2.19 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Kholood have taken 1.10 points per game from 21 outings (6W 5D 10L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 2.42 goals scored and 0.98 conceded per game recently; Al Kholood are on 1.23 scored and 1.84 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Qadisiyah FC have seen both teams score in 63% of their recent games.
Last 43 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
Al Kholood
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Kholood in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 30W 9D 4L in their last 43 games (2.30 PPG), while Al Kholood have gone 12W 9D 22L in their last 43 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al Kholood away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.19 PPG; Al Kholood away: 1.10 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al Kholood been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Al Kholood in 14%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 5 times since December 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. The two were last together as recently as 9 October 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Al-Qadisiyah FC have won the last 5 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Qadisiyah FC won 0-5 on 9 Oct 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 2W 0D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Kholood — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 5 Meetings
5
Al-Qadisiyah FC
0
Draws
0
Al Kholood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Kholood?
From 5 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 5, Al Kholood have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Kholood last play each other?
They last met on 9 October 2026, when Al Kholood 0-5 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Kholood?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 62%, Al Kholood 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 67% for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 62% for Al Kholood. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 52% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Al Kholood in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al Kholood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al Kholood?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's games and 52% of Al Kholood's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Kholood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's matches and 62% of Al Kholood's.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Kholood tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, Al Kholood in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.