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Dominant Al-Qadisiyah FC run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Al Kholood.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al Kholood 4-0 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Regular Season - 8, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.55 xG and Al Kholood 0.88 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Al-Qadisiyah FC beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Kholood landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.00 / defence 0.77 against Al Kholood attack 0.76 / defence 1.04, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 53% | Draw 27% | Al Kholood 21%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. Over 3.5 was 23% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 49%, Al Kholood 58%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.

Al Kholood's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 1.20. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.75 average — above their attacking norm. Al Kholood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights