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Dominant Al-Qadisiyah FC run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Al Kholood.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al Kholood 4-1 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.87 xG and Al Kholood 0.83 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. Al-Qadisiyah FC beat their projection by 2.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.93 / defence 0.76 against Al Kholood attack 0.78 / defence 1.33, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 61% | Draw 23% | Al Kholood 16%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 61%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 45%, Al Kholood 55%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.

Al Kholood's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 1.93 PPG against 1.07. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm. Al Kholood (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights