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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 61% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Kholood encounter.

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Pre-Match Analysis

Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Kholood meet at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 30. This fixture gets under way on Friday 2 May 2025 at 19:00 UTC.

Current Form

Al-Qadisiyah FC's overall Pro League record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: L D L W D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have posted 7W 2D 1L at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — Al-Qadisiyah FC are significantly better at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Al Kholood (all games): 3W 0D 7L across 10 Pro League outings this term — 0.90 points per game. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.

Al Kholood's away record: 2W 1D 7L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form favours the hosts. Al-Qadisiyah FC's 1.50 PPG return is 0.60 points per game ahead of Al Kholood's 0.90 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Al-Qadisiyah FC, 0 for Al Kholood and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Dec 2024, ended 3–0 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading

Al-Qadisiyah FC half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.

Al Kholood half-time and goal-timing data (29 games, 14 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 45% versus Al Kholood 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 45% | Al Kholood 55%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.87 xG and Al Kholood 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.930 / defence 0.761 | Al Kholood attack 0.778 / defence 1.333. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.401. Al Kholood bring a strong defensive rating of 1.333 — this is suppressing Al-Qadisiyah FC's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence rating of 0.761 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 29 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 29 Al Kholood games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 61% | Draw 23% | Al Kholood 16%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.64 | Draw 4.35 | Al Kholood 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (61%) — a 45pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.70. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.70 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.70 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 51% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al-Qadisiyah FC 40% | Al Kholood 70%.

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