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Prediction vindicated as Al-Qadisiyah FC edge out Al-Ittihad FC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al-Ittihad FC 2-1 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.96 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.28 xG, a combined 3.24. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.38 / defence 0.63 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.36 / defence 0.93, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 53% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad FC 24%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 53%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 62% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 55%, Al-Ittihad FC 57%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 63% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.06 PPG, Al-Ittihad FC 2.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Qadisiyah FC win broke the near-deadlock. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.12 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights