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Poisson model rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 53%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Ittihad FC fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 17 as Al-Qadisiyah FC welcome Al-Ittihad FC to Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 22 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 8W 2D 0L this season (10 games, 2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Al-Qadisiyah FC are significantly better at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Ittihad FC stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Pro League matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.10. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ittihad FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Ittihad FC have posted 7W 3D 0L from 10 away outings — 2.40 PPG. They are averaging 2.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 2.40 exceeds their overall 1.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al-Qadisiyah FC at 2.00 PPG versus Al-Ittihad FC's 1.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Qadisiyah FC register both teams scoring in 60% of relevant matches, Al-Ittihad FC in 80% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 0, Al-Ittihad FC 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 6 Mar 2025, ended 1–1 with a draw.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading Patterns

Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).

Al-Ittihad FC in-play and half-time data (49 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 51% versus Al-Ittihad FC 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 55% | Al-Ittihad FC 57%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.96 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.28 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.375 / defence 0.633 | Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.360 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.529 / away 1.488. Al-Qadisiyah FC carry an above-average attack strength of 1.375 — their λ of 1.96 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ittihad FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.360 — the away xG of 1.28 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence rating of 0.633 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 49 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 49 Al-Ittihad FC games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 53% | Draw 23% | Al-Ittihad FC 24%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.89 | Draw 4.35 | Al-Ittihad FC 4.17. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 53% — the draw (23%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 63% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.24. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 63% — the 3.24 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (1.96 / 1.28) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Qadisiyah FC at 53% — moderate model lean. With a 23% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

Poisson projects 3.24 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 63% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.9 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 62%. Form rates corroborate: Al-Qadisiyah FC 60% | Al-Ittihad FC 80% BTTS from recent games.

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