🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ittihad FC share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 24, as Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Ittihad FC drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.19 xG and Al-Ittihad FC 1.18 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.91 / defence 0.73 against Al-Ittihad FC attack 1.21 / defence 0.87, drawn from 23/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 36% | Draw 28% | Al-Ittihad FC 36%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 48%, Al-Ittihad FC 65%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (23 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 56% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Ittihad FC's trading profile (23 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 74% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.17 PPG, Al-Ittihad FC 2.48 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Al-Ittihad FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.82 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights