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Shock result as Al-Qadisiyah FC defy the odds to beat Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2-1 at Prince Mohamed bin Fahd Stadium, Regular Season - 17, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.01 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.16 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Al-Qadisiyah FC beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Hilal Saudi FC landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 0.80 / defence 1.01 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.53 / defence 0.86, drawn from 16/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 17% | Draw 20% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 64%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 64%. Instead the game produced a Al-Qadisiyah FC win, an outcome the model had rated at just 17% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 69% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 50%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 88%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (16 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 25% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (16 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.69 PPG against 2.12. Form was overturned, with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.71 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.14 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights