Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Qadisiyah FC (51%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Qadisiyah FC face Al-Fayha.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Al-Qadisiyah FC welcome Al-Fayha to Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium. Kick-off is set for Thursday 5 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC stand at 8W 1D 1L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 2.60 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Al-Qadisiyah FC have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across 10 games at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium this term (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have recorded 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — 0.80 PPG. Last five: L L L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Al-Fayha have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Fayha's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.70 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 0.80). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 4 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Al-Qadisiyah FC, 1 for Al-Fayha and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.2 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 9 May 2026, ended 2–1 with Al-Qadisiyah FC winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 55%.
Al-Fayha in-play tendencies (38 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 63% of games (away games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 66% versus Al-Fayha 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 68% | Al-Fayha 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.63 xG and Al-Fayha 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.126 / defence 0.854 | Al-Fayha attack 0.790 / defence 1.023. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.406. Data: 38 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 38 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 51% | Draw 29% | Al-Fayha 20%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.96 | Draw 3.45 | Al-Fayha 5.00. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 48% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.58. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 48%/52% — the total xG of 2.58 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.58 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 48% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates are neutral: Al-Qadisiyah FC 60% | Al-Fayha 40%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 5 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 51% | Draw 29% | Al-Fayha 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 48% | BTTS 51% | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.63 / Al-Fayha 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.126 / def 0.854 | Al-Fayha attack 0.790 / def 1.023 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (51%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.63
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Al-Fayha xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
48%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Thursday 5 November 2026 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 51% chance of winning, Al-Fayha a 20% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 48%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha?
Record (4 meetings): Al-Qadisiyah FC 3W | Draws 0 | Al-Fayha 1W.
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha in?
Al-Qadisiyah FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.60 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-L-W-W. Al-Fayha (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack rating (1.13) and Al-Fayha's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.63 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al-Fayha's attack versus Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.8%), 2-0 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
51%
1.95
29%
3.47
20%
5.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.63
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
2.58
0.95
Al-Fayha xG
1.95
51%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
5.02
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
48%
Over 2.5
2.08
52%
Under 2.5
1.92
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
39%
2.58
20%
5.09
Win to Nil
20%
5.04
4%
25.58
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.6 | 7.2 | 3.4 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 12.4 | 11.7 | 5.6 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.6 | 4.5 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.2 | 2.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.1 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha expected to score?
The model projects 1.63 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 0.95 for Al-Fayha, a combined total of 2.58.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent record stands at 26W 8D 4L from 38 games, a 2.26 PPG return, with W-W-L-W-W in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al-Fayha, meanwhile, have gone 11W 9D 18L across 38 games — 1.11 PPG, with L-L-L-D-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Fayha, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Qadisiyah FC by 1.15 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al-Fayha heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Qadisiyah FC have managed 12W 6D 1L from 19 games — 2.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Fayha's away record stands at 4W 3D 12L across 19 trips, a 0.79 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Qadisiyah FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 2.39 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Al-Fayha are on 1.18 scored and 1.61 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Qadisiyah FC have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Early Season
Al-Fayha
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 26W 8D 4L in their last 38 games (2.26 PPG), while Al-Fayha have gone 11W 9D 18L in their last 38 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al-Fayha away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.21 PPG; Al-Fayha away: 0.79 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to November 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Qadisiyah FC have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Jan 2026, when Al-Qadisiyah FC won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Al-Qadisiyah FC's record when hosting Al-Fayha specifically: 2W 0D 0L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Al-Qadisiyah FC
0
Draws
1
Al-Fayha
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha?
From 4 meetings on record, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 3, Al-Fayha have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Al-Fayha 1-2 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time.
Al-Fayha are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 58%, Al-Fayha 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 63% for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 63% for Al-Fayha. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 53% and 26% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Qadisiyah FC keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; Al-Fayha in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al-Fayha away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Qadisiyah FC play Al-Fayha?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's games and 53% of Al-Fayha's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 63% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's matches and 63% of Al-Fayha's.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fayha tend to score early?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have had a goal before half-time in 84% of their recent matches, Al-Fayha in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.