Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model favours Al-Ahli Jeddah (61%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Ahli Jeddah face Al Taawon.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 13 as Al-Ahli Jeddah welcome Al Taawon to King Abdullah Sports City. Kick-off is set for Thursday 5 November 2026 at 17:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Al-Ahli Jeddah — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 2.10 points per game. Last five: W W W L L. They are averaging 2.20 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Al-Ahli Jeddah have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's form when playing at home: 10W 0D 0L across 10 games at King Abdullah Sports City this term (3.00 PPG). They are averaging 3.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at King Abdullah Sports City. Their home PPG of 3.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.10 — Al-Ahli Jeddah are significantly better at King Abdullah Sports City than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Taawon stand at 2W 3D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Taawon have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al Taawon have posted 2W 3D 5L from 10 away outings — 0.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
On current form, Al-Ahli Jeddah have the edge — a 1.20 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.90) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Al-Ahli Jeddah: 6 wins from 8 previous clashes against 0 for Al Taawon, with 2 draws across those contests.
The 8 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 11 May 2026, ended 2–1 with Al-Ahli Jeddah winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Ahli Jeddah and goals. The home side's 6 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.0 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
Al-Ahli Jeddah in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 89% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 72% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Al Taawon in-play tendencies (38 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Ahli Jeddah 45% versus Al Taawon 63%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Ahli Jeddah 55% | Al Taawon 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.25 xG and Al Taawon 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.436 / defence 0.739 | Al Taawon attack 1.092 / defence 1.109. League average goals — home 1.414 / away 1.406. Al-Ahli Jeddah carry an above-average attack strength of 1.436 — their λ of 2.25 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence rating of 0.739 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 38 Al-Ahli Jeddah games / 38 Al Taawon games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 61% | Draw 22% | Al Taawon 17%. Fair-value odds: Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.64 | Draw 4.55 | Al Taawon 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Al-Ahli Jeddah (61%) — a 44pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 66% | BTTS probability 62% | Total xG 3.39. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 66% — a total xG of 3.39 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 62% reflects that both xG figures (2.25 / 1.14) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al-Ahli Jeddah at 61% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.39 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 66% — strong confidence, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 62% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al-Ahli Jeddah 40% | Al Taawon 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: King Abdullah Sports City • Kick-off: Thursday 5 Nov 2026, 17:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Ahli Jeddah 61% | Draw 22% | Al Taawon 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 66% | BTTS 62% | xG Al-Ahli Jeddah 2.25 / Al Taawon 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 1.436 / def 0.739 | Al Taawon attack 1.092 / def 1.109 | league avg home 1.414 / away 1.406 • Poisson stance: Al-Ahli Jeddah (61%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.25
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Al Taawon xG
62%
BTTS
87%
Over 1.5
66%
Over 2.5
44%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon kick off?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon is scheduled to kick off at 17:00 on Thursday 5 November 2026 at King Abdullah Sports City.
Where is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon being played?
The match is being played at King Abdullah Sports City.
What competition is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon part of?
Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon?
Our statistical model gives Al-Ahli Jeddah a 61% chance of winning, Al Taawon a 17% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al-Ahli Jeddah the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon?
Our model estimates a 62% probability that both Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon will score (BTTS).
Will Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 66%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon?
Record (8 meetings): Al-Ahli Jeddah 6W | Draws 2 | Al Taawon 0W.
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon in?
Al-Ahli Jeddah (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 2.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-W-W-L-L. Al Taawon (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al-Ahli Jeddah's attack at 1.44x the league average against Al Taawon's defence at 1.11x — combine the two and it projects 2.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Taawon's attack versus Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 38/38 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 9.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.7%), 2-0 (8.6%). Together the top three scorelines make up 28% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Ahli Jeddah Win
61%
1.64
22%
4.46
17%
6.04
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
9.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
8.6%
Draw
2 – 0
8.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.25
Al-Ahli Jeddah xG
Total xG
3.39
1.14
Al Taawon xG
1.64
61%
Home win
4.46
22%
Draw
6.04
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
85%
Over 1.5
1.18
15%
Under 1.5
6.67
66%
Over 2.5
1.52
34%
Under 2.5
2.94
44%
Over 3.5
2.27
56%
Under 3.5
1.79
25%
Over 4.5
4.00
75%
Under 4.5
1.33
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
62%
BTTS Yes
1.61
38%
BTTS No
2.65
Clean Sheet
32%
3.11
11%
9.51
Win to Nil
20%
5.10
2%
57.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 3.4 | 3.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 7.6 | 8.6 | 4.9 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.6 | 9.7 | 5.5 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.4 | 7.3 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 3.6 | 4.1 | 2.3 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.8%.
How many goals are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon expected to score?
The model projects 2.25 expected goals for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1.14 for Al Taawon, a combined total of 3.39.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 61%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al-Ahli Jeddah's recent record stands at 27W 6D 5L from 38 games, a 2.29 PPG return, with W-W-W-L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Al Taawon, meanwhile, have gone 15W 10D 13L across 38 games — 1.45 PPG, with L-D-L-D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Al Taawon, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Ahli Jeddah by 0.84 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Taawon heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Al-Ahli Jeddah have managed 15W 3D 0L from 18 games — 2.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al Taawon's away record stands at 7W 3D 8L across 18 trips, a 1.33 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Ahli Jeddah come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al-Ahli Jeddah are averaging 2.03 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; Al Taawon are on 1.63 scored and 1.34 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Taawon in 63%.
Defensively: Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 38 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Ahli Jeddah
Early Season
Al Taawon
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon in coming into this match?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have gone 27W 6D 5L in their last 38 games (2.29 PPG), while Al Taawon have gone 15W 10D 13L in their last 38 (1.45 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home or Al Taawon away?
Al-Ahli Jeddah's home record (2.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Ahli Jeddah at home: 2.67 PPG; Al Taawon away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Al-Ahli Jeddah or Al Taawon been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Al Taawon in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Al-Ahli Jeddah have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
Al-Ahli Jeddah's record when hosting Al Taawon specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Al-Ahli Jeddah
2
Draws
0
Al Taawon
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon?
From 8 meetings on record, Al-Ahli Jeddah have won 6, Al Taawon have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon last play each other?
They last met on 11 May 2026, when Al Taawon 1-2 Al-Ahli Jeddah.
Who has won more matches between Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al-Ahli Jeddah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 89% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 61% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Al Taawon are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Ahli Jeddah 56%, Al Taawon 67% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 72% for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 61% for Al Taawon. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 50% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al-Ahli Jeddah keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Ahli Jeddah home games / Al Taawon away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al-Ahli Jeddah play Al Taawon?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's games and 67% of Al Taawon's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al-Ahli Jeddah vs Al Taawon usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 72% of Al-Ahli Jeddah's matches and 61% of Al Taawon's.
Do Al-Ahli Jeddah and Al Taawon tend to score early?
Al-Ahli Jeddah have had a goal before half-time in 89% of their recent matches, Al Taawon in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.