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Dominant Al-Qadisiyah FC run riot with a 5-0 hammering of Al-Fayha.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al-Fayha 5-0 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.94 xG and Al-Fayha 0.85 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 5-0 for 5 actual goals. Al-Qadisiyah FC beat their projection by 3.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Fayha landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.19 / defence 0.72 against Al-Fayha attack 0.83 / defence 1.08, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 63% | Draw 21% | Al-Fayha 16%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 63%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 31% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 53%, Al-Fayha 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Al-Fayha's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 47% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.02 PPG against 1.04. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) scored 5 against a 1.91 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Fayha (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.96 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 5 against a 1.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights