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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al-Fayha encounter.

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 15 as Al-Qadisiyah FC welcome Al-Fayha to Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium. Kick-off is set for Wednesday 14 January 2026 at 14:45 UTC.

Form Analysis

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al-Qadisiyah FC stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Pro League matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: L D W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Al-Qadisiyah FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's form when playing at home: 8W 2D 0L across 10 games at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium this term (2.60 PPG). They are averaging 2.60 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.00 — Al-Qadisiyah FC are significantly better at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium than their overall form suggests.

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Fayha have recorded 2W 3D 5L from 10 outings — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Fayha, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Fayha's form when playing away from home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 road games this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Al-Qadisiyah FC are in the better shape of the two on current Pro League data — 1.10 PPG ahead (2.00 vs 0.90). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.

The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Al-Qadisiyah FC register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Al-Fayha in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.

H2H Record

The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Al-Qadisiyah FC, 1 for Al-Fayha and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.

The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 Apr 2025, ended 1–2 with Al-Fayha winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Al-Qadisiyah FC in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games).

Al-Fayha in-play tendencies (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 47% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 51% versus Al-Fayha 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 53% | Al-Fayha 43%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.94 xG and Al-Fayha 0.85 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.192 / defence 0.719 | Al-Fayha attack 0.826 / defence 1.083. League average goals — home 1.504 / away 1.429. Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence rating of 0.719 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 47 Al-Qadisiyah FC games / 47 Al-Fayha games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 63% | Draw 21% | Al-Fayha 16%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.59 | Draw 4.76 | Al-Fayha 6.25. The model has a clear lean to Al-Qadisiyah FC (63%) — a 47pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the pick at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 2.79 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 53% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. This conflicts with form data: Al-Qadisiyah FC 70% | Al-Fayha 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.

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