🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fateh share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium, Regular Season - 21, as Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al-Fateh drew 1-1 in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.98 xG and Al-Fateh 0.75 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Al-Qadisiyah FC fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.39 / defence 0.73 against Al-Fateh attack 0.78 / defence 0.98, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Qadisiyah FC 66% | Draw 21% | Al-Fateh 13%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 66%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Qadisiyah FC 57%, Al-Fateh 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Al-Fateh's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 1.17. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.04 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.92 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights