Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Diriyah Prediction & Preview
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Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Diriyah encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Al Diriyah travel to Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium to take on Al-Qadisiyah FC in Pro League (matchday 22). The game is scheduled for Thursday 11 March 2027 at 18:00 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Al-Qadisiyah FC stand at 8W 1D 1L — 2.50 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are averaging 2.90 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
At home, Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 6W 2D 2L in their last 10 home games (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.00 lags behind their overall 2.50 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Al Diriyah — last 10 games: 3W 3D 4L — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L D W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Al Diriyah's away record over their last 5 away games: 3W 0D 2L (1.80 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. 2 clean sheets from their last 5 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.80 exceeds their overall 1.20 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
Al-Qadisiyah FC are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 1.30 PPG ahead (2.50 vs 1.20). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for Al-Qadisiyah FC, 0 for Al Diriyah and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 1 H2H match in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 3 Sep 2026, ended Al-Qadisiyah FC 2–0 Al Diriyah — a Al-Qadisiyah FC win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Al-Qadisiyah FC trading profile (last 12 games, 5 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in home games; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 58%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Al Diriyah trading profile (last 12 games, 5 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 100% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 75% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 20% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al-Qadisiyah FC 50% versus Al Diriyah 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Qadisiyah FC 67% | Al Diriyah 33%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.97 xG and Al Diriyah 1.17 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.261 / defence 1.056 | Al Diriyah attack 0.751 / defence 1.036. League average goals — home 1.506 / away 1.477. Al-Qadisiyah FC carry an above-average attack rating of 1.261 — their 1.97 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Al Diriyah's attack rating of 0.751 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.17. Data: built from Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 46 games and Al Diriyah's last 12.
Result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 54% | Draw 26% | Al Diriyah 20%. Fair-value odds: Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.85 | Draw 3.90 | Al Diriyah 4.90. Al-Qadisiyah FC hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS Yes probability 61% | Total xG 3.14. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.14 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 61% — both xG figures (1.97 / 1.17) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al-Qadisiyah FC as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al-Qadisiyah FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.14 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 10 home games and Al Diriyah's last 5 away games) averaging 3.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 61% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Al-Qadisiyah FC 80% (last 10 home games) | Al Diriyah 20% (last 5 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Diriyah | Competition: Pro League, matchday 22 | Venue: Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 11 March 2027 at 18:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al-Qadisiyah FC 54% | Draw 26% | Al Diriyah 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% (Under 39%) | BTTS Yes 61% (No 39%) | xG Al-Qadisiyah FC 1.97 / Al Diriyah 1.17 • Poisson strength factors: Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.261 / def 1.056 | Al Diriyah attack 0.751 / def 1.036 | league avg home 1.506 / away 1.477 • Poisson stance: Al-Qadisiyah FC (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.97
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Expected Goals
1.17
Al Diriyah xG
61%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Diriyah FAQs
What time does Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Diriyah kick off?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Diriyah is scheduled to kick off at 18:00 UK time on Thursday 11 March 2027 at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
Where is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Diriyah being played?
The match is being played at Prince Saud bin Jalawi Stadium.
What competition is Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Diriyah part of?
Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Diriyah is a Pro League fixture (matchday 22) (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Diriyah?
Our statistical model gives Al-Qadisiyah FC a 54% chance of winning, Al Diriyah a 20% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al-Qadisiyah FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Diriyah?
Our model estimates a 61% probability that both Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Diriyah will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Diriyah have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Al-Qadisiyah FC's attack rating (1.26) and Al Diriyah's defence rating (1.04), the model arrives at 1.97 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Al Diriyah's attack versus Al-Qadisiyah FC's defence, projects 1.17 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Al-Qadisiyah FC's last 46 games and Al Diriyah's last 12 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.3%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.8%), 2-0 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Qadisiyah FC Win
54%
1.85
26%
3.90
20%
4.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
9.8%
Home win
1 – 0
8.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.97
Al-Qadisiyah FC xG
Total xG
3.14
1.17
Al Diriyah xG
1.85
54%
Home win
3.90
26%
Draw
4.90
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
61%
BTTS Yes
1.63
39%
BTTS No
2.59
Clean Sheet
31%
3.23
14%
7.16
Win to Nil
17%
5.99
3%
35.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.3 | 5.1 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 10.0 | 5.9 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.8 | 5.8 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 6.4 | 3.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.7 | 3.2 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Diriyah Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Diriyah?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Diriyah expected to score?
The model projects 1.97 expected goals for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 1.17 for Al Diriyah, a combined total of 3.14.
How confident is the prediction model for Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Diriyah?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 12 outings, Al-Qadisiyah FC have picked up 2.33 PPG on a 9W 1D 2L record — W-W-W-L-W across the most recent five.
Al Diriyah's form line: 4W 3D 5L from 12 games, 1.25 PPG, last five L-D-W-L-L.
Put side by side, Al-Qadisiyah FC are the form team by 1.08 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Al Diriyah.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Al-Qadisiyah FC have posted 2.00 PPG from their last 5 home games (3W 1D 1L).
On the road, Al Diriyah have gone 3W 0D 2L from their last 5 away games — 1.80 PPG when travelling. That's actually stronger than their 1.25 PPG overall record — Al Diriyah travel well.
The Goals Picture
Al-Qadisiyah FC are averaging 2.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Al Diriyah are on 0.83 scored and 1.08 conceded.
Defensively: Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 12 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
Al Diriyah
Blended
Al-Qadisiyah FC (Home) vs Al Diriyah (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Al-Qadisiyah FC
Blended
Al Diriyah
Blended
❓ Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Diriyah Form FAQs
What form are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Diriyah in coming into this match?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have gone 9W 1D 2L in their last 12 games (2.33 PPG), while Al Diriyah have gone 4W 3D 5L in their last 12 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home or Al Diriyah away?
Al-Qadisiyah FC's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al-Qadisiyah FC at home: 2.00 PPG; Al Diriyah away: 1.80 PPG.
Have Al-Qadisiyah FC or Al Diriyah been keeping clean sheets recently?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Al Diriyah in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 1 H2H match in our data, going back to September 2026. All of them came in Pro League. The most recent was as recently as 3 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Last 1 Meetings
1
Al-Qadisiyah FC
0
Draws
0
Al Diriyah
Recent Meetings
❓ Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Diriyah H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Diriyah?
Across the 1 head-to-head match in our data, Al-Qadisiyah FC have won 1, Al Diriyah have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Diriyah last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 3 September 2026: Al Diriyah 0-2 Al-Qadisiyah FC.
Who has won more matches between Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Diriyah?
Al-Qadisiyah FC have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 1 head-to-head match in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Al-Qadisiyah FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 80% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Al Diriyah are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al-Qadisiyah FC 100%, Al Diriyah 20% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Al-Qadisiyah FC and 60% for Al Diriyah. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 80% and 0% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Diriyah in 40%; Al Diriyah in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al-Qadisiyah FC home games / Al Diriyah away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Al-Qadisiyah FC vs Al Diriyah Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Diriyah matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's games and 20% of Al Diriyah's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Diriyah matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's matches and 60% of Al Diriyah's.
Do Al-Qadisiyah FC and Al Diriyah matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 100% of Al-Qadisiyah FC's recent matches and 100% of Al Diriyah's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.