Al Orubah vs Al Riyadh – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al Riyadh edge out Al Orubah 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Riyadh beat Al Orubah 0-1 at Al-Jouf University Stadium, Regular Season - 13, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Orubah 0.91 xG and Al Riyadh 1.52 xG, a combined 2.43. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Orubah fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Orubah attack 0.65 / defence 1.13 against Al Riyadh attack 1.04 / defence 1.02, drawn from 12/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Orubah 23% | Draw 26% | Al Riyadh 51%, with Al Riyadh to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Orubah 58%, Al Riyadh 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Orubah's trading profile (12 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al Riyadh's trading profile (12 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Riyadh arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Riyadh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.25 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights