Al Orubah vs Al Riyadh – Predictions
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🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al Orubah's attack at 0.65x the league average against Al Riyadh's defence at 1.02x — combine the two and it projects 0.91 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al Riyadh's attack (1.04x) against Al Orubah's defence (1.13x) — and the away total comes out at 1.52.
These ratings are built from 12/46 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (11.8%), 0-0 (10.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Riyadh Win
23%
4.41
26%
3.86
51%
1.94
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.3%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
0 – 2
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.91
Al Orubah xG
Total xG
2.43
1.52
Al Riyadh xG
4.41
23%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
1.94
51%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.14
53%
BTTS No
1.88
Clean Sheet
22%
4.57
40%
2.49
Win to Nil
5%
20.16
21%
4.85
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.8 | 13.3 | 10.1 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 8.0 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 4.7 | 1.8 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.6 | 4.2 | 2.1 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 1.7 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Orubah vs Al Riyadh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are Al Orubah and Al Riyadh expected to score?
The model projects 0.91 expected goals for Al Orubah and 1.52 for Al Riyadh, a combined total of 2.43.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Orubah vs Al Riyadh?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 51%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.