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Dominant Al-Raed run riot with a 0-4 hammering of Al Orubah.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Raed beat Al Orubah 0-4 at Al-Jouf University Stadium, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Orubah 1.45 xG and Al-Raed 1.50 xG, a combined 2.95. The scoreboard read 0-4 for 4 actual goals. Al Orubah fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Al-Raed outscored their 1.50 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Orubah attack 0.76 / defence 1.20 against Al-Raed attack 0.96 / defence 1.32, drawn from 27/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Orubah 36% | Draw 26% | Al-Raed 38%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 38%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 80% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Orubah 52%, Al-Raed 59%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Orubah's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 56% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al-Raed's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Orubah 0.96 PPG, Al-Raed 0.67 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Raed win broke the near-deadlock. Al Orubah (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.85 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 1.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Raed (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.31 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.08 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights