Al Orubah vs Al-Nassr – Match Report

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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Al Orubah defy the odds to beat Al-Nassr 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Orubah beat Al-Nassr 2-1 at Al-Jouf University Stadium, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Orubah 0.88 xG and Al-Nassr 2.27 xG, a combined 3.15. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Al Orubah beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Nassr landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Orubah attack 0.72 / defence 1.26 against Al-Nassr attack 1.32 / defence 0.81, drawn from 22/56 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Orubah 13% | Draw 18% | Al-Nassr 69%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 69%. Instead the game produced a Al Orubah win, an outcome the model had rated at just 13% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Orubah 50%, Al-Nassr 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Orubah's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Nassr's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 68% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.14 PPG against 1.05. Form was overturned, with Al Orubah winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Al Orubah (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.80 average — above their attacking norm. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.10 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.10 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights