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Al-Ahli Jeddah cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al Orubah.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Orubah 0-2 at Al-Jouf University Stadium, Regular Season - 18, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Orubah 0.57 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.82 xG, a combined 2.39. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Orubah attack 0.46 / defence 1.36 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.97 / defence 0.82, drawn from 17/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Orubah 11% | Draw 21% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 68%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 68%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Orubah 53%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 32%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Orubah's trading profile (17 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 24% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 59% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (17 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.82. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights