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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Okhdood and NEOM share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City, Regular Season - 20, as Al Okhdood and NEOM drew 1-1 in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.31 xG and NEOM 1.35 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.80 / defence 1.06 against NEOM attack 0.91 / defence 1.09, drawn from 52/18 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 36% | Draw 27% | NEOM 37%, with NEOM to win its most likely call at 37%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 50%, NEOM 67%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Okhdood's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

NEOM's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, NEOM arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.50. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights