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Shock result as Damac defy the odds to beat Al Okhdood 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Damac beat Al Okhdood 0-1 at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.64 xG and Damac 1.52 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Okhdood fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 1.00 / defence 1.24 against Damac attack 0.86 / defence 1.14, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 40% | Draw 26% | Damac 34%, with Al Okhdood to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Damac win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 50%, Damac 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Okhdood's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Damac's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Okhdood 0.89 PPG, Damac 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Damac win broke the near-deadlock. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line. Damac (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights