Al Okhdood 0-1 Damac – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Okhdood at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Okhdood vs Damac fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Okhdood host Damac at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Tuesday 30 December 2025 at 17:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Al Okhdood — All Games: 1W 2D 7L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: D W L D L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 2.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.10 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Okhdood's form when playing at home: 3W 2D 5L across 10 games at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.50 — Al Okhdood are significantly better at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Damac stand at 0W 6D 4L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: D D D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. This season is still relatively young for Damac, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Damac away from home this season: 1W 5D 4L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Al Okhdood 0.50 PPG, Damac 0.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
Damac have tended to come out on top in this fixture, winning 3 of the last 4 encounters against Al Okhdood's 0 victories.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 13 Feb 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
It is worth noting that Damac have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 3 wins from 4 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
Trading Patterns
Al Okhdood in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
Damac in-play and half-time data (44 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 50% versus Damac 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 50% | Damac 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.64 xG and Damac 1.52 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.996 / defence 1.244 | Damac attack 0.856 / defence 1.138. League average goals — home 1.450 / away 1.430. Data: 44 Al Okhdood games / 44 Damac games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 40% | Draw 26% | Damac 34%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 2.50 | Draw 3.85 | Damac 2.94. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 64% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS Yes at 64% reflects that both xG figures (1.64 / 1.52) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Al Okhdood at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Okhdood offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 3.17 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 61% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 64%. Form rates corroborate: Al Okhdood 80% | Damac 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Damac | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City • Kick-off: Tuesday 30 Dec 2025, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 40% | Draw 26% | Damac 34% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 64% | xG Al Okhdood 1.64 / Damac 1.52 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.996 / def 1.244 | Damac attack 0.856 / def 1.138 | league avg home 1.450 / away 1.430 • Poisson stance: Al Okhdood (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.64
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
1.52
Damac xG
64%
BTTS
84%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Okhdood vs Damac kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Damac kicked off at 17:30 on Tuesday 30 December 2025 at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Damac?
Al Okhdood 0 - 1 Damac.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Damac being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Damac part of?
Al Okhdood vs Damac is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Damac?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 40% chance of winning, Damac a 34% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Al Okhdood the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Damac?
Our model estimates a 64% probability that both Al Okhdood and Damac will score (BTTS).
Will Al Okhdood vs Damac have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Damac?
Record (4 meetings): Al Okhdood 0W | Draws 1 | Damac 3W.
What form are Al Okhdood and Damac in?
Al Okhdood (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 2.10 | L5 D-W-L-D-L. Damac (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Al Okhdood's attacking strength (1.00x league average) is weighed against Damac's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.64. The same calculation in reverse, Damac's attack versus Al Okhdood's defence, projects 1.52 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.9%. Close behind: 2-1 (8.7%), 1-2 (8.0%). Together the top three scorelines make up 29% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Okhdood Win
40%
2.53
26%
3.85
34%
2.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Most likely
2 – 1
8.7%
Home win
1 – 2
8.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.64
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
3.17
1.52
Damac xG
2.53
40%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
2.90
34%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
64%
BTTS Yes
1.56
36%
BTTS No
2.80
Clean Sheet
22%
4.59
19%
5.17
Win to Nil
9%
11.58
7%
15.01
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 6.4 | 4.9 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 10.6 | 8.0 | 4.1 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.7 | 8.7 | 6.6 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 3.1 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Damac?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.9%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Damac expected to score?
The model projects 1.64 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 1.52 for Damac, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Damac?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Okhdood come into this having played 44 games, going 10W 9D 25L for 0.89 points per game. Their last five reads D-W-L-D-L. The sample for Al Okhdood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Damac sit at 0.93 PPG from 44 outings (9W 14D 21L), a run that reads D-D-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Damac is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Al Okhdood on 0.89 PPG, Damac on 0.93. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Al Okhdood's home form reads 4W 5D 13L across 22 games on their own ground, a 0.77 PPG return.
Away from home, Damac have taken 0.73 points per game from 22 outings (3W 7D 12L).
Goals in Recent Form
Al Okhdood are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game recently; Damac are on 1.05 scored and 1.55 conceded.
Last 44 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Blended
Damac
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Okhdood and Damac in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 10W 9D 25L in their last 44 games (0.89 PPG), while Damac have gone 9W 14D 21L in their last 44 (0.93 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Okhdood at home or Damac away?
Al Okhdood's home record (0.77 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Okhdood at home: 0.77 PPG; Damac away: 0.73 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 23 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Damac go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
Al Okhdood's record when hosting Damac specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al Okhdood
1
Draws
5
Damac
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Damac?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Okhdood have won 0, Damac have won 5, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Damac last play each other?
They last met on 23 April 2026, when Damac 2-0 Al Okhdood.
Who has won more matches between Al Okhdood and Damac?
Damac have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Damac are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Okhdood 64%, Damac 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Al Okhdood) and 46% (Damac).
On the defensive side: Al Okhdood have failed to score in 27% of games; Damac in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Damac away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Okhdood play Damac?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 64% of Al Okhdood's games and 59% of Damac's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Okhdood vs Damac usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Al Okhdood's recent games and 46% of Damac's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Al Okhdood and Damac tend to score early?
Al Okhdood have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Damac in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Damac defy the odds to beat Al Okhdood 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Damac beat Al Okhdood 0-1 at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City, Regular Season - 12, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.64 xG and Damac 1.52 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Okhdood fell 1.6 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 1.00 / defence 1.24 against Damac attack 0.86 / defence 1.14, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 40% | Draw 26% | Damac 34%, with Al Okhdood to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Damac win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 84% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 64% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 50%, Damac 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Damac's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Okhdood 0.89 PPG, Damac 0.93 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Damac win broke the near-deadlock. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line. Damac (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.