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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Okhdood and Al Taawon share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Okhdood and Al Taawon finished level at 1-1 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 0.79 xG and Al Taawon 1.28 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.80 / defence 1.11 against Al Taawon attack 0.88 / defence 0.68, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 23% | Draw 29% | Al Taawon 48%, with Al Taawon to win its most likely call at 48%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 52%, Al Taawon 38%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Okhdood's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Al Taawon's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Taawon arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.93. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights