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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Okhdood and Al Shabab share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City, Regular Season - 9, as Al Okhdood and Al Shabab drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.19 xG and Al Shabab 1.60 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.98 / defence 1.28 against Al Shabab attack 0.82 / defence 0.80, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 27% | Draw 27% | Al Shabab 46%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 50%, Al Shabab 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Okhdood's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Al Shabab's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights