Al Okhdood 1-1 Al Shabab – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Okhdood vs Al Shabab fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Al Okhdood host Al Shabab at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 23 November 2025 at 15:05 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Pro League games this season, Al Okhdood have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City, Al Okhdood have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Al Shabab — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Shabab's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Okhdood at 1.00 PPG versus Al Shabab's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Al Okhdood have won 1, Al Shabab 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.2 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Al Okhdood in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Al Shabab in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 50% versus Al Shabab 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 50% | Al Shabab 60%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.19 xG and Al Shabab 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.976 / defence 1.284 | Al Shabab attack 0.818 / defence 0.798. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.527. Al Shabab's defence strength of 0.798 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 42 Al Okhdood games / 42 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 27% | Draw 27% | Al Shabab 46%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Al Shabab 2.17. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Al Shabab as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Okhdood 80% | Al Shabab 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Al Shabab | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City • Kick-off: Sunday 23 Nov 2025, 15:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 27% | Draw 27% | Al Shabab 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 53% | BTTS 57% | xG Al Okhdood 1.19 / Al Shabab 1.60 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.976 / def 1.284 | Al Shabab attack 0.818 / def 0.798 | league avg home 1.525 / away 1.527 • Poisson stance: Al Shabab (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
1.60
Al Shabab xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
53%
Over 2.5
31%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Okhdood vs Al Shabab kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Al Shabab kicked off at 15:05 on Sunday 23 November 2025 at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Al Shabab?
Al Okhdood 1 - 1 Al Shabab.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Al Shabab being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Al Shabab part of?
Al Okhdood vs Al Shabab is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Al Shabab?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 27% chance of winning, Al Shabab a 46% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Al Shabab the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Al Shabab?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Al Okhdood and Al Shabab will score (BTTS).
Will Al Okhdood vs Al Shabab have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 53%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al Shabab?
Record (4 meetings): Al Okhdood 1W | Draws 3 | Al Shabab 0W.
What form are Al Okhdood and Al Shabab in?
Al Okhdood (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.90 | L5 L-L-D-W-L. Al Shabab (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-D-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Al Okhdood's attack at 0.98x the league average against Al Shabab's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Al Shabab's attack versus Al Okhdood's defence, projects 1.60 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.4%), 0-1 (8.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Shabab Win
27%
3.72
27%
3.65
46%
2.19
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
2.79
1.60
Al Shabab xG
3.72
27%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
2.19
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
77%
Over 1.5
1.30
23%
Under 1.5
4.35
53%
Over 2.5
1.89
47%
Under 2.5
2.13
31%
Over 3.5
3.23
69%
Under 3.5
1.45
15%
Over 4.5
6.67
85%
Under 4.5
1.18
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
20%
4.97
30%
3.28
Win to Nil
5%
18.48
14%
7.18
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.1 | 9.8 | 7.9 | 4.2 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.7 | 9.4 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 6.9 | 5.6 | 3.0 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.7 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Al Shabab?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.2%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Al Shabab expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 1.60 for Al Shabab, a combined total of 2.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Al Shabab?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Al Okhdood come into this having played 42 games, going 10W 8D 24L for 0.90 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-W-L. The sample for Al Okhdood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Shabab sit at 1.60 PPG from 42 outings (19W 10D 13L), a run that reads L-D-D-L-D across their last five. The sample for Al Shabab is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Al Shabab carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of Al Okhdood — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Al Okhdood's home form reads 4W 4D 12L across 20 games on their own ground, a 0.80 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Shabab have taken 1.50 points per game from 20 outings (8W 6D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al Shabab come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Al Okhdood are averaging 0.98 goals scored and 1.74 conceded per game recently; Al Shabab are on 1.69 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al Shabab in 64%.
Last 42 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Blended
Al Shabab
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Okhdood and Al Shabab in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 10W 8D 24L in their last 42 games (0.90 PPG), while Al Shabab have gone 19W 10D 13L in their last 42 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Okhdood at home or Al Shabab away?
Al Shabab's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Okhdood at home: 0.80 PPG; Al Shabab away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 14 March 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Al Okhdood's record when hosting Al Shabab specifically: 1W 2D 0L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
1
Al Okhdood
4
Draws
1
Al Shabab
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al Shabab?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Okhdood have won 1, Al Shabab have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Al Shabab last play each other?
They last met on 14 March 2026, when Al Shabab 2-0 Al Okhdood.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Al Shabab are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Okhdood 65%, Al Shabab 60% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 65% for Al Okhdood and 55% for Al Shabab. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 25% and 40% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Al Shabab away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Okhdood play Al Shabab?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 65% of Al Okhdood's games and 60% of Al Shabab's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Okhdood vs Al Shabab usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 65% of Al Okhdood's matches and 55% of Al Shabab's.
Do Al Okhdood and Al Shabab tend to score early?
Al Okhdood have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Al Shabab in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Al Okhdood and Al Shabab share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City, Regular Season - 9, as Al Okhdood and Al Shabab drew 1-1 in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.19 xG and Al Shabab 1.60 xG, a combined 2.79. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.98 / defence 1.28 against Al Shabab attack 0.82 / defence 0.80, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 27% | Draw 27% | Al Shabab 46%, with Al Shabab to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 50%, Al Shabab 60%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (42 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.
Al Shabab's trading profile (42 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Al Shabab arrived the stronger side — 1.60 PPG against 0.90. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 1.95 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.