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Poisson model rates Al Shabab at 46%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Okhdood vs Al Shabab fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Match Analysis

Al Okhdood host Al Shabab at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 9. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 23 November 2025 at 15:05 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al Okhdood have gone 3W 1D 6L from 10 outings — a 1.00 PPG return. Last five: L L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.

At home at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City, Al Okhdood have gone 3W 1D 6L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 2.70 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al Shabab — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Pro League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L D D L D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Shabab's away record: 4W 4D 2L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.60 exceeds their overall 1.00 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Al Okhdood at 1.00 PPG versus Al Shabab's 1.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

Head to Head

There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Al Okhdood have won 1, Al Shabab 0, with 3 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.

These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.2 per contest from 4 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 17 Apr 2025, ended 0–0 with a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.2 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

Al Okhdood in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 65% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 65% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Al Shabab in-play and half-time data (42 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 50% versus Al Shabab 64%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 50% | Al Shabab 60%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.19 xG and Al Shabab 1.60 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.976 / defence 1.284 | Al Shabab attack 0.818 / defence 0.798. League average goals — home 1.525 / away 1.527. Al Shabab's defence strength of 0.798 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 42 Al Okhdood games / 42 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 27% | Draw 27% | Al Shabab 46%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 3.70 | Draw 3.70 | Al Shabab 2.17. Al Shabab hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 53% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.79. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 53%/47% — the total xG of 2.79 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al Shabab as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Al Shabab offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

The Poisson model projects 2.79 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 53% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 1.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 57% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Okhdood 80% | Al Shabab 70% BTTS from recent games.

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