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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Al Okhdood defy the odds to beat Al-Raed 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Okhdood beat Al-Raed 1-0 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.38 xG and Al-Raed 2.35 xG, a combined 3.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Raed landed 2.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.72 / defence 1.53 against Al-Raed attack 1.06 / defence 1.23, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 22% | Draw 19% | Al-Raed 59%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Al Okhdood win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 50%, Al-Raed 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Okhdood's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

Al-Raed's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Okhdood 0.92 PPG, Al-Raed 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Okhdood win broke the near-deadlock. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights