🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 59%, yet in-form Al Okhdood provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al Okhdood vs Al-Raed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Al-Raed make the trip to Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium to face Al Okhdood in Pro League, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Thursday 22 May 2025 at 17:05 UTC.

Current Form

Al Okhdood's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.

Al Okhdood at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium this season.

Al-Raed have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: W L L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

On the road, Al-Raed have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Form favours the hosts. Al Okhdood's 1.20 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Al-Raed's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.

The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al Okhdood register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Al-Raed in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.

H2H Analysis

The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Okhdood lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.

These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2025, ended 2–0 with Al Okhdood winning.

With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.

Trading & In-Play

Al Okhdood — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.

Al-Raed — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 47% versus Al-Raed 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 50% | Al-Raed 58%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.38 xG and Al-Raed 2.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.716 / defence 1.534 | Al-Raed attack 1.063 / defence 1.232. League average goals — home 1.565 / away 1.438. Al Okhdood's attack strength of 0.716 is below the league average — the 1.38 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Raed bring a strong defensive rating of 1.232 — this is suppressing Al Okhdood's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Al Okhdood games / 66 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 22% | Draw 19% | Al-Raed 59%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 4.55 | Draw 5.26 | Al-Raed 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Al-Raed (59%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.73. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.73 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 2.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Raed are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Okhdood (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 3.73 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.

The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Al Okhdood 70% | Al-Raed 70% BTTS from recent games.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights