Al Okhdood 1-0 Al-Raed – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al-Raed at 59%, yet in-form Al Okhdood provide a compelling counter-argument — this Al Okhdood vs Al-Raed fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al-Raed make the trip to Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium to face Al Okhdood in Pro League, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Thursday 22 May 2025 at 17:05 UTC.
Current Form
Al Okhdood's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: D W L L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Al Okhdood at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium this season: 1W 2D 7L from 10 home games — 0.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.50 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium this season.
Al-Raed have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: W L L L L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 2.40. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Al-Raed have gone 2W 0D 8L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 2.30 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Form favours the hosts. Al Okhdood's 1.20 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Al-Raed's 0.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al Okhdood register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant games, Al-Raed in 70%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Okhdood lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 20 Jan 2025, ended 2–0 with Al Okhdood winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Al Okhdood — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Al-Raed — key trading statistics (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 47% versus Al-Raed 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 50% | Al-Raed 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.38 xG and Al-Raed 2.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.716 / defence 1.534 | Al-Raed attack 1.063 / defence 1.232. League average goals — home 1.565 / away 1.438. Al Okhdood's attack strength of 0.716 is below the league average — the 1.38 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Raed bring a strong defensive rating of 1.232 — this is suppressing Al Okhdood's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 66 Al Okhdood games / 66 Al-Raed games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 22% | Draw 19% | Al-Raed 59%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 4.55 | Draw 5.26 | Al-Raed 1.69. The model has a clear lean to Al-Raed (59%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 72% | BTTS probability 68% | Total xG 3.73. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 72% — a total xG of 3.73 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% reflects that both xG figures (1.38 / 2.35) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Raed are the pick at 59% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Al Okhdood (1.20 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.73 combined xG gives a 72% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.5 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 68%. Form rates corroborate: Al Okhdood 70% | Al-Raed 70% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Al-Raed | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Thursday 22 May 2025, 17:05 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 22% | Draw 19% | Al-Raed 59% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 72% | BTTS 68% | xG Al Okhdood 1.38 / Al-Raed 2.35 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.716 / def 1.534 | Al-Raed attack 1.063 / def 1.232 | league avg home 1.565 / away 1.438 • Poisson stance: Al-Raed (59%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.38
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
2.35
Al-Raed xG
68%
BTTS
89%
Over 1.5
72%
Over 2.5
51%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Okhdood vs Al-Raed kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Raed kicked off at 17:05 on Thursday 22 May 2025 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Raed?
Al Okhdood 1 - 0 Al-Raed.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Al-Raed being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Al-Raed part of?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Raed is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Al-Raed?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 22% chance of winning, Al-Raed a 59% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Al-Raed the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Raed?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Al Okhdood and Al-Raed will score (BTTS).
Will Al Okhdood vs Al-Raed have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 72%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Raed?
Record (3 meetings): Al Okhdood 2W | Draws 0 | Al-Raed 1W.
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Raed in?
Al Okhdood (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-L-L. Al-Raed (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 2.40 | L5 W-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Al Okhdood's attacking strength (0.72x league average) is weighed against Al-Raed's defensive record (1.23x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.38. Flip it around — Al-Raed's attack (1.06x) against Al Okhdood's defence (1.53x) — and the away total comes out at 2.35.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-2, at 9.1%. Close behind: 1-1 (8.8%), 1-3 (7.2%). Together the top three scorelines make up 25% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Raed Win
22%
4.61
19%
5.18
59%
1.70
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.8%
Draw
1 – 3
7.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.38
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
3.73
2.35
Al-Raed xG
4.61
22%
Home win
5.18
19%
Draw
1.70
59%
Away win
Goals Markets
89%
Over 1.5
1.12
11%
Under 1.5
9.09
72%
Over 2.5
1.39
28%
Under 2.5
3.57
51%
Over 3.5
1.96
49%
Under 3.5
2.04
32%
Over 4.5
3.12
68%
Under 4.5
1.47
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.48
32%
BTTS No
3.09
Clean Sheet
10%
10.43
25%
3.97
Win to Nil
2%
48.10
15%
6.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 2.4 | 5.7 | 6.6 | 5.2 | 3.0 | 1.4 |
| 1 | 3.3 | 7.8 | 9.1 | 7.2 | 4.2 | 2.0 |
| 2 | 2.3 | 5.4 | 6.3 | 4.9 | 2.9 | 1.4 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.5 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.3 | 0.6 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.9 | 1.0 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Al-Raed?
Our Poisson model rates 1-2 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.1%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Al-Raed expected to score?
The model projects 1.38 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 2.35 for Al-Raed, a combined total of 3.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Al-Raed?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 59%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Okhdood's recent record stands at 16W 13D 37L from 66 games, a 0.92 PPG return, with D-W-L-L-L in the last five.
Al-Raed, meanwhile, have gone 15W 13D 38L across 66 games — 0.88 PPG, with W-L-L-L-L in their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.92 PPG for Al Okhdood against 0.88 for Al-Raed. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al Okhdood have managed 8W 5D 20L from 33 games — 0.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Raed's away record stands at 8W 7D 18L across 33 trips, a 0.94 PPG haul.
Attack vs Defence
Al Okhdood are averaging 0.94 goals scored and 1.61 conceded per game recently; Al-Raed are on 1.23 scored and 1.70 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Current Season
Al-Raed
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Raed in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 16W 13D 37L in their last 66 games (0.92 PPG), while Al-Raed have gone 15W 13D 38L in their last 66 (0.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Okhdood at home or Al-Raed away?
Al-Raed's away record (0.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Okhdood at home: 0.88 PPG; Al-Raed away: 0.94 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 4 times that we have on record, stretching back to September 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 22 May 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Al Okhdood have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Okhdood have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al-Raed — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
3
Al Okhdood
0
Draws
1
Al-Raed
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Raed?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Okhdood have won 3, Al-Raed have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Al-Raed last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2025, when Al Okhdood 1-0 Al-Raed.
Who has won more matches between Al Okhdood and Al-Raed?
Al Okhdood have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Al-Raed are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Okhdood 54%, Al-Raed 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 61% (Al Okhdood) and 58% (Al-Raed). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 24% and 48% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Okhdood have failed to score in 30% of games; Al-Raed in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Al-Raed away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Okhdood play Al-Raed?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 54% of Al Okhdood's games and 58% of Al-Raed's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Okhdood vs Al-Raed usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 61% of Al Okhdood's matches and 58% of Al-Raed's.
Do Al Okhdood and Al-Raed tend to score early?
Al Okhdood have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, Al-Raed in 73% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Okhdood defy the odds to beat Al-Raed 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Okhdood beat Al-Raed 1-0 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 33, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.38 xG and Al-Raed 2.35 xG, a combined 3.73. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Raed landed 2.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.72 / defence 1.53 against Al-Raed attack 1.06 / defence 1.23, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 22% | Draw 19% | Al-Raed 59%, with Al-Raed to win its most likely call at 59%. Instead the game produced a Al Okhdood win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 72%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 89% and missed. Over 3.5 was 51% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 50%, Al-Raed 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Al-Raed's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Okhdood 0.92 PPG, Al-Raed 0.88 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Okhdood win broke the near-deadlock. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.70 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Raed (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.