🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Al-Qadisiyah FC cruise to a comfortable 2-4 victory over Al Okhdood.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Qadisiyah FC beat Al Okhdood 2-4 at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City, Regular Season - 23, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 0.89 xG and Al-Qadisiyah FC 2.37 xG, a combined 3.26. The scoreboard read 2-4 for 6 actual goals. Al Okhdood beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al-Qadisiyah FC outscored their 2.37 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.75 / defence 1.31 against Al-Qadisiyah FC attack 1.33 / defence 0.81, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 12% | Draw 18% | Al-Qadisiyah FC 70%, with Al-Qadisiyah FC to win its most likely call at 70%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 63%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 84% and landed. Over 3.5 was 41% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 49%, Al-Qadisiyah FC 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Okhdood's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Qadisiyah FC's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Qadisiyah FC arrived the stronger side — 2.09 PPG against 0.80. Form held, and they took the win. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 4 against a 1.89 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Qadisiyah FC (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.63 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 1.15 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights