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Al-Nassr cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al Okhdood.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Nassr beat Al Okhdood 0-2 at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City, Regular Season - 28, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 0.77 xG and Al-Nassr 3.14 xG, a combined 3.90. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al-Nassr landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.71 / defence 1.38 against Al-Nassr attack 1.60 / defence 0.69, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 6% | Draw 11% | Al-Nassr 83%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 83%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 75%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 90% and landed. Over 3.5 was 55% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 61% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 51%, Al-Nassr 70%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Okhdood's trading profile (61 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al-Nassr's trading profile (61 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 38% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.25 PPG against 0.82. Form held, and they took the win. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.97 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights