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Dominant Al-Nassr run riot with a 0-9 hammering of Al Okhdood.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Nassr beat Al Okhdood 0-9 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.13 xG and Al-Nassr 2.00 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-9 for 9 actual goals. Al Okhdood fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Al-Nassr outscored their 2.00 projection by 7.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.79 / defence 1.11 against Al-Nassr attack 1.32 / defence 0.93, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 21% | Draw 21% | Al-Nassr 58%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 50%, Al-Nassr 78%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Okhdood's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al-Nassr's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 0.95. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 9 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) scored 9 against a 2.59 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights