Al Okhdood 0-9 Al-Nassr – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Al-Nassr at 58% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Okhdood vs Al-Nassr encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Al Okhdood and Al-Nassr meet at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium in Pro League, Regular Season - 31. This fixture gets under way on Monday 12 May 2025 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Al Okhdood's overall Pro League record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: W D D W L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Al Okhdood have posted 1W 3D 6L at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium — 0.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.20 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium this season.
Al-Nassr have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W W L W L. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 90% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play.
When travelling in Pro League this season, Al-Nassr have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. They are averaging 2.00 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. Both teams have scored in 90% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.20 vs 1.60 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
The BTTS picture is exceptionally clear (using home/away splits) — Al Okhdood register both teams scoring in 80% of relevant games, Al-Nassr in 90%. Both sides above 70% makes BTTS Yes one of the strongest standalone angles in this fixture.
H2H History
Across the last 3 meetings, Al-Nassr have the stronger historical record — 3 wins to Al Okhdood's 0, with 0 draws in the mix.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 4.0 per game across 3 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 9 Jan 2025, ended 1–3 with Al-Nassr winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. Al-Nassr have won 3 of 3 previous encounters, and at 4.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading & In-Play
Al Okhdood — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
Al-Nassr — key trading statistics (64 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 73% of those occasions; they lead at the break 61% of the time; BTTS occurs in 72% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 81% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 53%.
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Okhdood 48% and Al-Nassr 72% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 50% | Al-Nassr 78%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.13 xG and Al-Nassr 2.00 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.787 / defence 1.112 | Al-Nassr attack 1.317 / defence 0.928. League average goals — home 1.541 / away 1.369. Al Okhdood's attack strength of 0.787 is below the league average — the 1.13 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Al-Nassr have an above-average attack strength of 1.317 — the away xG of 2.00 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 64 Al Okhdood games / 64 Al-Nassr games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 21% | Draw 21% | Al-Nassr 58%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 4.76 | Draw 4.76 | Al-Nassr 1.72. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (58%) — a 37pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.13. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.13 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al-Nassr are the pick at 58% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 21% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.13 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 58%. Form rates corroborate: Al Okhdood 80% | Al-Nassr 90% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Al-Nassr | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 31 | Venue: Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 12 May 2025, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 21% | Draw 21% | Al-Nassr 58% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 58% | xG Al Okhdood 1.13 / Al-Nassr 2.00 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.787 / def 1.112 | Al-Nassr attack 1.317 / def 0.928 | league avg home 1.541 / away 1.369 • Poisson stance: Al-Nassr (58%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
2.00
Al-Nassr xG
58%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Okhdood vs Al-Nassr kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Nassr kicked off at 19:00 on Monday 12 May 2025 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Nassr?
Al Okhdood 0 - 9 Al-Nassr.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Al-Nassr being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Al-Nassr part of?
Al Okhdood vs Al-Nassr is a Regular Season - 31 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Al-Nassr?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 21% chance of winning, Al-Nassr a 58% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw — making Al-Nassr the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Al-Nassr?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Al Okhdood and Al-Nassr will score (BTTS).
Will Al Okhdood vs Al-Nassr have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Nassr?
Record (3 meetings): Al Okhdood 0W | Draws 0 | Al-Nassr 3W.
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Nassr in?
Al Okhdood (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-D-W-L. Al-Nassr (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Al Okhdood's attack at 0.79x the league average against Al-Nassr's defence at 0.93x — combine the two and it projects 1.13 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Al-Nassr's attack (1.32x) against Al Okhdood's defence (1.11x) — and the away total comes out at 2.00.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (8.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al-Nassr Win
21%
4.78
21%
4.67
58%
1.73
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
9.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 2
8.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
3.13
2.00
Al-Nassr xG
4.78
21%
Home win
4.67
21%
Draw
1.73
58%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.71
42%
BTTS No
2.41
Clean Sheet
13%
7.43
32%
3.09
Win to Nil
3%
35.53
19%
5.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 8.7 | 8.8 | 5.9 | 2.9 | 1.2 |
| 1 | 4.9 | 9.9 | 9.9 | 6.6 | 3.3 | 1.3 |
| 2 | 2.8 | 5.6 | 5.6 | 3.7 | 1.9 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Al-Nassr?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.1%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Al-Nassr expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 2.00 for Al-Nassr, a combined total of 3.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Al-Nassr?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 58%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Al Okhdood's recent record stands at 16W 13D 35L from 64 games, a 0.95 PPG return, with W-D-D-W-L in the last five.
Al-Nassr, meanwhile, have gone 44W 10D 10L across 64 games — 2.22 PPG, with W-W-L-W-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Al-Nassr by 1.27 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Al Okhdood heading into this one.
How They Fare by Venue
At home specifically, Al Okhdood have managed 8W 5D 19L from 32 games — 0.91 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Al-Nassr's away record stands at 24W 3D 5L across 32 trips, a 2.34 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Al-Nassr come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Al Okhdood are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Al-Nassr are on 2.56 scored and 1.22 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Al-Nassr in 72%.
Last 64 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Current Season
Al-Nassr
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Okhdood and Al-Nassr in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 16W 13D 35L in their last 64 games (0.95 PPG), while Al-Nassr have gone 44W 10D 10L in their last 64 (2.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Okhdood at home or Al-Nassr away?
Al-Nassr's away record (2.34 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Okhdood at home: 0.91 PPG; Al-Nassr away: 2.34 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 6 times that we have on record, stretching back to November 2023 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 2 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 11 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Notable Numbers
Al-Nassr have won the last 6 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Al-Nassr won 0-9 on 12 May 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Okhdood have gone 0W 0D 3L from 3 meetings on their own ground against Al-Nassr — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 6 Meetings
0
Al Okhdood
0
Draws
6
Al-Nassr
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al-Nassr?
From 6 meetings on record, Al Okhdood have won 0, Al-Nassr have won 6, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Al-Nassr last play each other?
They last met on 11 April 2026, when Al Okhdood 0-2 Al-Nassr.
Who has won more matches between Al Okhdood and Al-Nassr?
Al-Nassr have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches.
Al-Nassr are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Okhdood 56%, Al-Nassr 72% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Al Okhdood and 81% for Al-Nassr. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 53% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Okhdood have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Al-Nassr away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Okhdood play Al-Nassr?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Al Okhdood's games and 72% of Al-Nassr's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Okhdood vs Al-Nassr usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Al Okhdood's matches and 81% of Al-Nassr's.
Do Al Okhdood and Al-Nassr tend to score early?
Al Okhdood have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Al-Nassr in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Al-Nassr run riot with a 0-9 hammering of Al Okhdood.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al-Nassr beat Al Okhdood 0-9 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 31, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.13 xG and Al-Nassr 2.00 xG, a combined 3.13. The scoreboard read 0-9 for 9 actual goals. Al Okhdood fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Al-Nassr outscored their 2.00 projection by 7.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.79 / defence 1.11 against Al-Nassr attack 1.32 / defence 0.93, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 21% | Draw 21% | Al-Nassr 58%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 58%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 9, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 50%, Al-Nassr 78%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (64 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Al-Nassr's trading profile (64 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 72% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.22 PPG against 0.95. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.06 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 9 against a 1.47 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) scored 9 against a 2.59 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.