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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al Okhdood edge out Al Najma 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Okhdood beat Al Najma 2-1 at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City, Regular Season - 7, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 2.32 xG and Al Najma 1.70 xG, a combined 4.02. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 1.00 / defence 1.45 against Al Najma attack 0.79 / defence 1.58, drawn from 40/6 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 51% | Draw 21% | Al Najma 27%, with Al Okhdood to win its most likely call at 51%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 92% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 74% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 67% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 67%, Al Najma 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Okhdood's trading profile (6 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Al Najma's trading profile (6 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Okhdood 0.17 PPG, Al Najma 0.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Okhdood win broke the near-deadlock. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 3.33 average — tighter than their form line. Al Najma (home/away splits) conceded 2 against a 3.33 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.

💡 Key Insights