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Poisson rates Al Okhdood at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Okhdood vs Al Najma encounter.

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Match Analysis

Al Okhdood host Al Najma at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City in Pro League, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 31 October 2025 at 13:40 UTC.

Form Guide

Al Okhdood — All Games: 2W 1D 7L from 10 Pro League outings this season, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L L L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Al Okhdood have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Al Okhdood's home record at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Pro League appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Najma stand at 0W 0D 6L from 6 Pro League matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.67 per game is modest, conceding 2.33 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.33 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Al Najma have played only a handful of Pro League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.

Al Najma away from home this season: 0W 0D 3L from 3 away games — 0.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 3.33 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 100% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.

Al Okhdood carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.70 PPG ahead of their opponents on 0.70 vs 0.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.

In-Play Data

Al Okhdood trading profile (6 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; Over 3.5 in 50%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Al Najma trading profile (6 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games; they fail to score in 33% of games.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al Okhdood 67% and Al Najma 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. Over 2.5 goals is well-supported by both sides' in-play profiles (Al Okhdood 67% | Al Najma 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 2.32 xG and Al Najma 1.70 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 1.002 / defence 1.453 | Al Najma attack 0.791 / defence 1.577. League average goals — home 1.470 / away 1.476. Al Najma bring a strong defensive rating of 1.577 — this is suppressing Al Okhdood's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Al Okhdood games / 6 Al Najma games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 51% | Draw 21% | Al Najma 27%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 1.96 | Draw 4.76 | Al Najma 3.70. Al Okhdood hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (21%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 74% | Total xG 4.02. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.02 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 74% reflects that both xG figures (2.32 / 1.70) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al Okhdood are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support.

The Poisson model projects 4.02 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 4.0 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 74% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Al Okhdood 70% | Al Najma 100% BTTS from recent games.

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