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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Al Okhdood defy the odds to beat Al Kholood 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Okhdood beat Al Kholood 1-0 at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.16 xG and Al Kholood 1.96 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Kholood landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.74 / defence 1.17 against Al Kholood attack 1.15 / defence 1.04, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 22% | Draw 22% | Al Kholood 56%, with Al Kholood to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Al Okhdood win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 47%, Al Kholood 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Okhdood's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.

Al Kholood's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Okhdood 0.83 PPG, Al Kholood 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Okhdood win broke the near-deadlock. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Al Kholood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights