Al Okhdood 1-0 Al Kholood – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Al Kholood at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Okhdood vs Al Kholood fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Kholood make the trip to Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City to face Al Okhdood in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Tuesday 13 January 2026 at 15:25 UTC.
Form
Al Okhdood (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City, Al Okhdood have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Kholood have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L L L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Kholood's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.50 for Al Okhdood, 0.90 for Al Kholood — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Okhdood lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2025, ended 1–0 with Al Okhdood winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al Okhdood — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Al Kholood — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 47% versus Al Kholood 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 47% | Al Kholood 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.16 xG and Al Kholood 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.744 / defence 1.165 | Al Kholood attack 1.148 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.466. Al Okhdood's attack strength of 0.744 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Al Okhdood games / 47 Al Kholood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 22% | Draw 22% | Al Kholood 56%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 4.55 | Draw 4.55 | Al Kholood 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Al Kholood (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Kholood are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Okhdood 60% | Al Kholood 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Al Kholood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 Jan 2026, 15:25 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 22% | Draw 22% | Al Kholood 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 59% | xG Al Okhdood 1.16 / Al Kholood 1.96 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.744 / def 1.165 | Al Kholood attack 1.148 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.466 • Poisson stance: Al Kholood (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
1.96
Al Kholood xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Okhdood vs Al Kholood kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Al Kholood kicked off at 15:25 on Tuesday 13 January 2026 at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Al Kholood?
Al Okhdood 1 - 0 Al Kholood.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Al Kholood being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Al Kholood part of?
Al Okhdood vs Al Kholood is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Al Kholood?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 22% chance of winning, Al Kholood a 56% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al Kholood the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Al Kholood?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al Okhdood and Al Kholood will score (BTTS).
Will Al Okhdood vs Al Kholood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al Kholood?
Record (2 meetings): Al Okhdood 1W | Draws 0 | Al Kholood 1W.
What form are Al Okhdood and Al Kholood in?
Al Okhdood (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-L. Al Kholood (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Al Okhdood's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against Al Kholood's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Al Kholood's attack (1.15x) against Al Okhdood's defence (1.17x) — and the away total comes out at 1.96.
These ratings are built from 47/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 11.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.8%), 0-2 (8.4%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Al Kholood Win
22%
4.48
22%
4.58
56%
1.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.8%
Away win
0 – 1
8.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Al Okhdood xG
Total xG
3.12
1.96
Al Kholood xG
4.48
22%
Home win
4.58
22%
Draw
1.79
56%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
60%
Over 2.5
1.67
40%
Under 2.5
2.50
38%
Over 3.5
2.63
62%
Under 3.5
1.61
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.44
Clean Sheet
14%
7.10
31%
3.20
Win to Nil
3%
31.84
17%
5.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.4 | 8.6 | 8.4 | 5.5 | 2.7 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.1 | 10.0 | 9.8 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 3.0 | 5.8 | 5.7 | 3.7 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 2.3 | 2.2 | 1.5 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Al Okhdood vs Al Kholood?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.3%.
How many goals are Al Okhdood and Al Kholood expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Al Okhdood and 1.96 for Al Kholood, a combined total of 3.12.
How confident is the prediction model for Al Okhdood vs Al Kholood?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Al Okhdood come into this having played 47 games, going 10W 9D 28L for 0.83 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-L-L-L. The sample for Al Okhdood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Al Kholood sit at 1.11 PPG from 47 outings (16W 4D 27L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-L across their last five. The sample for Al Kholood is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.83 PPG for Al Okhdood against 1.11 for Al Kholood. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Al Okhdood's home form reads 4W 5D 14L across 23 games on their own ground, a 0.74 PPG return.
Away from home, Al Kholood have taken 0.87 points per game from 23 outings (6W 2D 15L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Al Okhdood are averaging 0.89 goals scored and 1.72 conceded per game recently; Al Kholood are on 1.30 scored and 1.91 conceded.
Last 47 Results — Pro League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Al Okhdood
Blended
Al Kholood
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Al Okhdood and Al Kholood in coming into this match?
Al Okhdood have gone 10W 9D 28L in their last 47 games (0.83 PPG), while Al Kholood have gone 16W 4D 27L in their last 47 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Al Okhdood at home or Al Kholood away?
Al Kholood's away record (0.87 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Al Okhdood at home: 0.74 PPG; Al Kholood away: 0.87 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since November 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Pro League. They last met on 12 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Al Okhdood have gone 1W 0D 1L from 2 meetings on their own ground against Al Kholood — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Al Okhdood
1
Draws
1
Al Kholood
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al Kholood?
From 4 meetings on record, Al Okhdood have won 2, Al Kholood have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Al Okhdood and Al Kholood last play each other?
They last met on 12 May 2026, when Al Kholood 0-0 Al Okhdood.
Who has won more matches between Al Okhdood and Al Kholood?
Al Okhdood have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Al Okhdood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
Al Kholood are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Al Okhdood 61%, Al Kholood 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Al Okhdood) and 61% (Al Kholood). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 39% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Al Okhdood have failed to score in 30% of games; Al Kholood in 30%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Al Okhdood home games / Al Kholood away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Al Okhdood play Al Kholood?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Al Okhdood's games and 61% of Al Kholood's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Al Okhdood vs Al Kholood usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 56% of Al Okhdood's matches and 61% of Al Kholood's.
Do Al Okhdood and Al Kholood tend to score early?
Al Okhdood have had a goal before half-time in 65% of their recent matches, Al Kholood in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Al Okhdood defy the odds to beat Al Kholood 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Al Okhdood beat Al Kholood 1-0 at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.16 xG and Al Kholood 1.96 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al Kholood landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.74 / defence 1.17 against Al Kholood attack 1.15 / defence 1.04, drawn from 47/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 22% | Draw 22% | Al Kholood 56%, with Al Kholood to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Al Okhdood win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 82% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 47%, Al Kholood 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Al Okhdood's trading profile (47 games, 23 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not.
Al Kholood's trading profile (47 games, 23 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Al Okhdood 0.83 PPG, Al Kholood 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Okhdood win broke the near-deadlock. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line. Al Kholood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.17 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 2.04 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.