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Poisson model rates Al Kholood at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Al Okhdood vs Al Kholood fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Al Kholood make the trip to Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City to face Al Okhdood in Pro League, Regular Season - 15. The match kicks off on Tuesday 13 January 2026 at 15:25 UTC.
Form
Al Okhdood (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City, Al Okhdood have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Al Kholood have collected 0.90 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 3W 0D 7L. Last five: L L L W L. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 2.10. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Al Kholood, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Al Kholood's away record: 3W 0D 7L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 0.50 for Al Okhdood, 0.90 for Al Kholood — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Al Okhdood lead 1W to 1W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Apr 2025, ended 1–0 with Al Okhdood winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Al Okhdood — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at home): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games); they fail to score in 43% of games.
Al Kholood — key trading statistics (47 games, 23 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 47% versus Al Kholood 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 47% | Al Kholood 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 1.16 xG and Al Kholood 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.744 / defence 1.165 | Al Kholood attack 1.148 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.498 / away 1.466. Al Okhdood's attack strength of 0.744 is below the league average — the 1.16 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 47 Al Okhdood games / 47 Al Kholood games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 22% | Draw 22% | Al Kholood 56%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 4.55 | Draw 4.55 | Al Kholood 1.79. The model has a clear lean to Al Kholood (56%) — a 34pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 60% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 3.12. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 60% — the 3.12 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Al Kholood are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 3.12 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 60% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Al Okhdood 60% | Al Kholood 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Al Okhdood vs Al Kholood | Competition: Pro League, Regular Season - 15 | Venue: Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City • Kick-off: Tuesday 13 Jan 2026, 15:25 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• Record (2 meetings): Al Okhdood 1W | Draws 0 | Al Kholood 1W • Goals trend: 2.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Al Okhdood 2 – 2 Al Kholood • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Al Okhdood 50% / Draw 0% / Al Kholood 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 22% / draw 22% / away 56% • Goals: H2H average 2.00/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 3.12 (60% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 59% — no strong aligned signal
📈 Recent Form
• Al Okhdood (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-L • Al Kholood (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L • Al Okhdood home split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | CS 1 • Al Kholood away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | CS 1 • Form edge: minimal separation (Al Okhdood 0.50 PPG vs Al Kholood 0.90 PPG) • xG vs form (Al Okhdood): Poisson xG of 1.16 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.00 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Al Kholood): Poisson projects 1.96 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.20 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals margin: form ~2.2 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.12 (60% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~55% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 59% — no strong positional edge
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Al Okhdood 22% | Draw 22% | Al Kholood 56% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 60% | BTTS 59% | xG Al Okhdood 1.16 / Al Kholood 1.96 • Poisson strength factors: Al Okhdood attack 0.744 / def 1.165 | Al Kholood attack 1.148 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.498 / away 1.466 • Poisson stance: Al Kholood (56%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Al Okhdood xG
Expected Goals
1.96
Al Kholood xG
59%
BTTS
82%
Over 1.5
60%
Over 2.5
38%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Al Okhdood vs Al Kholood kick off?
Al Okhdood vs Al Kholood kicked off at 15:25 on Tuesday 13 January 2026 at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City.
What was the final score in Al Okhdood vs Al Kholood?
Al Okhdood 1 - 0 Al Kholood.
Where is Al Okhdood vs Al Kholood being played?
The match is being played at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City.
What competition is Al Okhdood vs Al Kholood part of?
Al Okhdood vs Al Kholood is a Regular Season - 15 fixture in the Pro League (Saudi-Arabia).
Who is favourite to win Al Okhdood vs Al Kholood?
Our statistical model gives Al Okhdood a 22% chance of winning, Al Kholood a 56% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making Al Kholood the favourite.
Will both teams score in Al Okhdood vs Al Kholood?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Al Okhdood and Al Kholood will score (BTTS).
Will Al Okhdood vs Al Kholood have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 60%.
What is the head-to-head record between Al Okhdood and Al Kholood?
• Record (2 meetings): Al Okhdood 1W | Draws 0 | Al Kholood 1W • Goals trend: 2.00 goals/game | Total H2H goals: Al Okhdood 2 – 2 Al Kholood • H2H markets: BTTS 50% | Over 2.5 50% | Win rates: Al Okhdood 50% / Draw 0% / Al Kholood 50% • Historical edge: no clear dominance — balanced H2H ledger • H2H result: balanced record (no historical lean) — Poisson model projects home 22% / draw 22% / away 56% • Goals: H2H average 2.00/game (50% Over 2.5 historically), Poisson total xG 3.12 (60% Over 2.5) — broadly consistent • BTTS: H2H rate 50%, Poisson probability 59% — no strong aligned signal
What form are Al Okhdood and Al Kholood in?
• Al Okhdood (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-L-L • Al Kholood (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 2.10 | L5 L-L-L-W-L • Al Okhdood home split: 0.70 PPG from 10 | GF 1.00 / GA 2.50 | CS 1 • Al Kholood away split: 0.90 PPG from 10 | GF 1.20 / GA 2.10 | CS 1 • Form edge: minimal separation (Al Okhdood 0.50 PPG vs Al Kholood 0.90 PPG) • xG vs form (Al Okhdood): Poisson xG of 1.16 aligns with form scoring rate of 1.00 — consistent corroboration • xG vs form (Al Kholood): Poisson projects 1.96 xG vs form scoring rate of 1.20 — model rates visitors higher than form alone implies, noting a favourable attack-vs-defence matchup • Goals margin: form ~2.2 goals/game, Poisson xG sum 3.12 (60% Over 2.5) — no strong lean either way • BTTS: mixed signals — form blend ~55% BTTS rate, Poisson probability 59% — no strong positional edge
What do the betting odds say about Al Okhdood vs Al Kholood?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture