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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al Okhdood cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Al Khaleej Saihat.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al Okhdood beat Al Khaleej Saihat 3-1 at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City, Regular Season - 33, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.08 xG and Al Khaleej Saihat 1.88 xG, a combined 2.96. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Al Okhdood beat their projection by 1.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Khaleej Saihat landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.70 / defence 1.36 against Al Khaleej Saihat attack 0.97 / defence 1.03, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 21% | Draw 25% | Al Khaleej Saihat 55%, with Al Khaleej Saihat to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Al Okhdood win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 57%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 81% and landed. Over 3.5 was 34% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 50%, Al Khaleej Saihat 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Okhdood's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Al Khaleej Saihat's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Okhdood 0.77 PPG, Al Khaleej Saihat 1.12 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al Okhdood win broke the near-deadlock. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.94 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.06 average — tighter than their form line. Al Khaleej Saihat (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.76 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights