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Dominant Al-Hilal Saudi FC run riot with a 0-6 hammering of Al Okhdood.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Hilal Saudi FC beat Al Okhdood 0-6 at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City, Regular Season - 21, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.06 xG and Al-Hilal Saudi FC 2.06 xG, a combined 3.12. The scoreboard read 0-6 for 6 actual goals. Al Okhdood fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Al-Hilal Saudi FC outscored their 2.06 projection by 3.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.80 / defence 1.07 against Al-Hilal Saudi FC attack 1.43 / defence 0.90, drawn from 53/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 18% | Draw 22% | Al-Hilal Saudi FC 60%, with Al-Hilal Saudi FC to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. Over 3.5 was 38% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 60% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 47%, Al-Hilal Saudi FC 74%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 57%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Okhdood's trading profile (53 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al-Hilal Saudi FC's trading profile (53 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Hilal Saudi FC arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 0.83. Form held, and they took the win. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 6 against a 1.73 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Hilal Saudi FC (home/away splits) scored 6 against a 2.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.31 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights