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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Al-Fayha defy the odds to beat Al Okhdood 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Fayha beat Al Okhdood 1-2 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 15, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.37 xG and Al-Fayha 1.09 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Al-Fayha outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.93 / defence 0.94 against Al-Fayha attack 0.79 / defence 1.09, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 43% | Draw 27% | Al-Fayha 30%, with Al Okhdood to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual Al-Fayha win had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 50% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 54%, Al-Fayha 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Okhdood's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Fayha's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Okhdood 0.94 PPG, Al-Fayha 1.10 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fayha win broke the near-deadlock.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights