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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Al-Fateh cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al Okhdood.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Fateh beat Al Okhdood 1-3 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 22, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.43 xG and Al-Fateh 1.04 xG, a combined 2.47. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Fateh outscored their 1.04 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.68 / defence 1.02 against Al-Fateh attack 0.75 / defence 1.38, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 46% | Draw 27% | Al-Fateh 28%, with Al Okhdood to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual Al-Fateh win had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 71% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 58% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 53%, Al-Fateh 64%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 60%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Okhdood's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Fateh's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 73% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Al Okhdood 0.89 PPG, Al-Fateh 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Al-Fateh win broke the near-deadlock. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.37 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Fateh (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.30 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.11 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights