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Al-Ettifaq cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Al Okhdood.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ettifaq beat Al Okhdood 1-3 at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City, Regular Season - 30, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.15 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.43 xG, a combined 2.58. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Al-Ettifaq outscored their 1.43 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.69 / defence 1.31 against Al-Ettifaq attack 0.79 / defence 1.08, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 30% | Draw 26% | Al-Ettifaq 43%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 43%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 48%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 49%, Al-Ettifaq 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Okhdood's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ettifaq arrived the stronger side — 1.46 PPG against 0.79. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 2.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.39 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights