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Al-Ettifaq cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Al Okhdood.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ettifaq beat Al Okhdood 0-2 at Prince Hathloul Bin Abdul Aziz Sport City Stadium, Regular Season - 19, in the Pro League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 1.00 xG and Al-Ettifaq 1.64 xG, a combined 2.64. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Al Okhdood fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.79 / defence 1.11 against Al-Ettifaq attack 1.11 / defence 0.80, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 23% | Draw 25% | Al-Ettifaq 52%, with Al-Ettifaq to win its most likely call at 52%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 56%, Al-Ettifaq 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Okhdood's trading profile (52 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al-Ettifaq's trading profile (52 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ettifaq arrived the stronger side — 1.35 PPG against 0.92. That form edge translated into the three points. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Al-Ettifaq (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.92 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights