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Prediction vindicated as Al-Ahli Jeddah edge out Al Okhdood 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Ahli Jeddah beat Al Okhdood 0-1 at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City, Regular Season - 14, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al Okhdood 0.95 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.54 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Al Okhdood fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al Okhdood attack 0.83 / defence 1.22 against Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.86 / defence 0.77, drawn from 46/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al Okhdood 23% | Draw 26% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 51%, with Al-Ahli Jeddah to win its most likely call at 51%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 71% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al Okhdood 48%, Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al Okhdood's trading profile (46 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 41% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Al-Ahli Jeddah's trading profile (46 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Ahli Jeddah arrived the stronger side — 2.00 PPG against 0.85. Form held, and they took the win. Al Okhdood (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.86 average — tighter than their form line. Al-Ahli Jeddah (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.

💡 Key Insights