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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Poisson rates Al-Ahli Jeddah at 51% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Al Okhdood vs Al-Ahli Jeddah encounter.

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Analysis

Al-Ahli Jeddah make the trip to Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City to face Al Okhdood in Pro League, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 10 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Form

Al Okhdood (all games): 1W 2D 7L across 10 Pro League fixtures this term — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L D L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Al Okhdood, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Okhdood's form when playing at home: 2W 2D 6L across 10 games at Prince Hathloul bin Abdul Aziz Sports City this term (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Al-Ahli Jeddah have collected 2.10 PPG across 10 Pro League outings this season: 6W 3D 1L. Last five: W W L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al-Ahli Jeddah, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al-Ahli Jeddah's away record: 6W 1D 3L from 10 road trips in Pro League this season (1.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.

Al-Ahli Jeddah arrive in superior form — a 1.60 PPG advantage (2.10 vs 0.50) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

H2H Analysis

Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Al Okhdood, 1 for Al-Ahli Jeddah and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.

The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 Mar 2025, ended 2–1 with Al Okhdood winning.

The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.

Trading Data

Al Okhdood goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.

Al-Ahli Jeddah goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (46 games, 22 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 92% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Al Okhdood 48% versus Al-Ahli Jeddah 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al Okhdood 48% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 48%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al Okhdood 0.95 xG and Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al Okhdood attack 0.827 / defence 1.219 | Al-Ahli Jeddah attack 0.858 / defence 0.770. League average goals — home 1.486 / away 1.468. Al-Ahli Jeddah's defence strength of 0.770 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 46 Al Okhdood games / 46 Al-Ahli Jeddah games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al Okhdood 23% | Draw 26% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 51%. Fair-value odds: Al Okhdood 4.35 | Draw 3.85 | Al-Ahli Jeddah 1.96. Al-Ahli Jeddah hold a narrow Poisson edge at 51% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Picks & Verdict

On the Poisson output, Al-Ahli Jeddah are the pick at 51% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 26% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Al-Ahli Jeddah if the outright odds are short.

Poisson projects 2.48 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 45% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though form averaging only 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging only 2.8 goals per meeting point in the other direction.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Al Okhdood 70% | Al-Ahli Jeddah 40%.

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