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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al-Nassr edge out NEOM 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Nassr beat NEOM 1-0 at King Saud University Stadium, Regular Season - 25, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 1.85 xG and NEOM 0.78 xG, a combined 2.62. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Al-Nassr fell 0.8 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.45 / defence 0.70 against NEOM attack 0.78 / defence 0.84, drawn from 58/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 62% | Draw 24% | NEOM 14%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 62%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 75% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 71%, NEOM 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 56%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Nassr's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time, and duly kept one.

NEOM's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.54 PPG against 1.33. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.91 scoring average — below par going forward. NEOM (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights