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Prediction vindicated as Al-Nassr edge out Al Shabab 3-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Nassr beat Al Shabab 3-2 at King Saud University Stadium, Regular Season - 16, in the Pro League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 2.10 xG and Al Shabab 0.74 xG, a combined 2.84. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Al-Nassr beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Al Shabab outscored their 0.74 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.40 / defence 0.87 against Al Shabab attack 0.61 / defence 0.97, drawn from 48/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 69% | Draw 19% | Al Shabab 12%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 69%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 54%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 32% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 65% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 73%, Al Shabab 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 67%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Nassr's trading profile (48 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.

Al Shabab's trading profile (48 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.04 PPG against 1.48. Form held, and they took the win. Al-Nassr (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Al Shabab (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.29 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights