🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📋

Poisson model favours Al-Nassr (69%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Al-Nassr face Al Shabab.

✍️ Match Preview

Fixture Analysis

It is a Pro League clash, Regular Season - 16 as Al-Nassr welcome Al Shabab to King Saud University Stadium. Kick-off is set for Saturday 17 January 2026 at 17:30 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Pro League games this season, Al-Nassr have gone 6W 1D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.90 PPG return. Last five: W D L L L. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Al-Nassr, so this record blends games from this season and last.

In front of their own supporters this season, Al-Nassr have posted 7W 1D 2L at King Saud University Stadium — 2.20 PPG. They are averaging 2.70 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, Al Shabab stand at 1W 4D 5L from 10 Pro League matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Al Shabab, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Al Shabab's form when playing away from home: 2W 3D 5L across 10 road games this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.

Al-Nassr carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.20 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.90 vs 0.70. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.

H2H

The historical ledger comes down firmly in favour of Al-Nassr: 5 wins from 8 previous clashes against 1 for Al Shabab, with 2 draws across those contests.

Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 8 meetings have averaged 3.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 7 Mar 2025, ended 2–2 with a draw.

From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both Al-Nassr and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 8 meetings, combined with an average of 3.5 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.

In-Play Data

Al-Nassr trading profile (48 games, 24 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 100% of those occasions; they lead at the break 54% of the time; BTTS occurs in 71% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 46%.

Al Shabab trading profile (48 games, 24 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.

From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Al-Nassr 71% and Al Shabab 62% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Al-Nassr 73% | Al Shabab 56%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Al-Nassr 2.10 xG and Al Shabab 0.74 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Al-Nassr attack 1.396 / defence 0.869 | Al Shabab attack 0.608 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.542 / away 1.403. Al-Nassr carry an above-average attack strength of 1.396 — their λ of 2.10 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 48 Al-Nassr games / 48 Al Shabab games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Al-Nassr 69% | Draw 19% | Al Shabab 12%. Fair-value odds: Al-Nassr 1.45 | Draw 5.26 | Al Shabab 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Al-Nassr (69%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 54% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.84. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 54%/46% — the total xG of 2.84 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Al-Nassr as the most likely outcome at 69% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.84 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.5 goals per meeting.

Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Al-Nassr 70% | Al Shabab 40%.

🔮 Your Prediction

Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.

💡 Key Insights