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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Al-Nassr edge out Al Riyadh 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Al-Nassr beat Al Riyadh 2-1 at Al-Awwal Park, Regular Season - 27, in the Pro League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Al-Nassr 2.07 xG and Al Riyadh 1.14 xG, a combined 3.21. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Al-Nassr attack 1.33 / defence 0.97 against Al Riyadh attack 0.88 / defence 1.09, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Al-Nassr 59% | Draw 21% | Al Riyadh 20%, with Al-Nassr to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 62%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 60% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 64% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Al-Nassr 77%, Al Riyadh 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 62%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Al-Nassr's trading profile (60 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Al Riyadh's trading profile (60 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Al-Nassr arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.15. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights